If you've been tuned into the economic news lately, you just might have the impression that there suddenly seem to be a lot of dark clouds on the horizon: discouraging reports on jobs, consumer confidence, the stock market and even pending home sales.

But does a spate of negative economic numbers mean we're headed back into recession?

Well, to start with, there's no arguing with the facts: Consumer confidence as measured by the widely respected Conference Board index took a dip in June - down by 10 points. And since almost nobody expected it, stock prices plummeted.

But for some useful perspective, keep this in mind: The consumer confidence index had been on a fairly steady upward trend for much of the past two quarters. And the historical fact is that sudden, short spikes downward in the index are not unusual coming out a recession.

Analysts at RDQ Economics noted last week that consumer confidence had "double dipped" in each of the two most recent recoveries following recessions - in early 1992 and then again in early 2003 - and in neither case did the national economy slip back into recession.

Analysts at Barclays Capital Research suggested that something else may even be at work this time around: Not only are consumers concerned by the continuing high unemployment rate, but they may also be reflecting a collective sense of frustration and helplessness at the ongoing failure to contain the damage from the Gulf oil drilling disaster.

Even former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan thinks the U.S. economy is undergoing what he calls "a typical pause" that is being triggered by stock market worries about European national debt levels and their impact on the global recovery.

Meanwhile, there's no arguing either with the latest pending home sales numbers from the National Association of Realtors - off by 30 percent.

But let's be real here: Virtually every housing analyst predicted there would be sharp falloffs in pending and closed sales in the months immediately following the expiration of the federal tax credit program.

Now with all the negativity out there, you might think there have been NO good numbers on housing lately. That's totally incorrect!

Check out the latest Case-Shiller home price index, for one example.

It found that home values are up in 18 of the 20 major metropolitan markets it tracks, with year over year jumps in prices like 7 percent for Washington DC, 8 percent for Los Angeles, 5 percent for Boston.

Home values were 4 percent on average nationwide compared with the year before.

You can't argue with those numbers either!

Published: July 5, 2010

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Kenneth R. Harney writes an award-winning, nationally-syndicated column on housing and real estate from Washington, D.C. He is also managing director of the National Real Estate Development Center, a professional education company. He is a past member of the Federal Reserve Board's Consumer Advisory Council, a committee that by federal statute reviews all Fed actions on home mortgage, consumer credit and banking industry regulation. He served as a member of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Working Group on Computerized Loan Origination (CLO) systems, and is a member of the Editorial Board of the Fannie Mae Foundation's journal, Housing Policy Debate. He is the author of two books on mortgage finance and real estate.