If you look at the latest housing numbers released last week by the Commerce Department and the National Association of Realtors, you'd have to say, "Wow! We are on track for an amazing year in sales -- and maybe even prices."

Resales of houses and condos in April were up by almost 8 percent - and now are 23 percent higher than they were the year before.

Sales of newly-constructed homes also soared in April, up 15 percent. They're 48 percent higher than April 2009.

Single family median home prices are even up by 4.5 percent for the year. In the Midwestern states, where the recession has been a lead weight on real estate longer than elsewhere , prices have jumped by 6 percent.

So what in these numbers is there not to like? Aren't they proof positive that the gloom-and-doom crowd had it wrong - that housing and real estate are NOT doing a "double dip," not taking a dive simply because foreclosures and unemployment are high?

Absolutely. No question the latest numbers are solid, even verging on extraordinary.

But here's some perspective we need: They are a little extraordinary -- for a reason.

Most economists agree that April sales totals, maybe even March, are distorted upwards because of the expiring federal tax credits.

Thousands of buyers rushed to complete their contracts in the past two months -- we know that.

But to what extent are the latest sales being "borrowed" from the months ahead? How many people who were going to buy later in 2010 moved up their deals so they could qualify for an $8,000 or $6,500 tax credit?

There's little question that some purchases were accelerated. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, says "the upswing in April sales was expected because of the tax credit inducement, and no doubt there will be some temporary fallback" ahead.

Mark Vitner, senior economist for Wells Fargo, predicts that "we may see sales fall to a record low" for a month or two following the end of the credit program."

But what about the longer term outlook? Won't a recovering national economy keep home sales positive?

Both Vitner and Yun, along with the majority of corporate and government economists polled in May by the National Association for Business Economics, say the answer is a strong yes!

Not only do consumers have growing confidence in the economy and their own incomes, but Yun points out that home buyers no longer fear further price declines -- and that's a crucial turning point in the cycle.

Published: May 31, 2010

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Kenneth R. Harney writes an award-winning, nationally-syndicated column on housing and real estate from Washington, D.C. He is also managing director of the National Real Estate Development Center, a professional education company. He is a past member of the Federal Reserve Board's Consumer Advisory Council, a committee that by federal statute reviews all Fed actions on home mortgage, consumer credit and banking industry regulation. He served as a member of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Working Group on Computerized Loan Origination (CLO) systems, and is a member of the Editorial Board of the Fannie Mae Foundation's journal, Housing Policy Debate. He is the author of two books on mortgage finance and real estate.