Quick passage by the House last week of a bill extending the $8,000 home buyer tax credit next year for military, diplomatic and intelligence personnel serving overseas increases the odds that Congress will agree to an extension, maybe even an expansion, of the entire credit program well into 2010.

The White House is also signaling that it sees the overall tax credit program -- currently set to expire November 30 -- as an important element in cutting the unemployment rolls and stimulating new jobs next year.

After an economic policy strategy meeting last week in the Oval Office involving President Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, congressional aides said Democrats generally support an extension of the housing credit.

Reid already has made clear he wants an extension. He is co-sponsoring a Senate bill that would do so for six months.

Congressman Charles Rangel, chairman of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, sponsored the one-year extension of the credit for military and other personnel serving overseas, and is reported by aides as favoring an extension for the entire program.

The White House has not publicly committed to an extension, but has confirmed that the President is seriously examining that option.

An unexpected development that emerged following last week's White House meeting was the possibility of opening up the credit to a broader group of buyers next year - people who sell their current homes and buy a replacement home.

Though details were scanty, Capitol Hill sources said one option on the table would be to provide a tax credit -- most likely at the $8,000 level -- to replacement home buyers whose incomes do not exceed some limit.

The current credit phases out for single taxpayers with incomes above $75,000, and married purchasers earning $150,000.

A politically sensitive issue hovering over the entire debate on extending the housing tax credit is its cost - what it would add to the federal budgetary deficit. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com, estimates that widening the credit to all buyers through next August could cost the government upwards of $30 billion.

Rangel's 12-month extension of the credit for service personnel is estimated to cost more than $300 million, but it's mainly being paid for through an increase in penalties levied by the IRS on taxpayers who fail to file corporate or partnership returns.

The New York Times reported that one possible solution to the cost problem would be to divert money not yet spent out of 2009's $800 billion stimulus legislation.

Published: October 12, 2009

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Kenneth R. Harney writes an award-winning, nationally-syndicated column on housing and real estate from Washington, D.C. He is also managing director of the National Real Estate Development Center, a professional education company. He is a past member of the Federal Reserve Board's Consumer Advisory Council, a committee that by federal statute reviews all Fed actions on home mortgage, consumer credit and banking industry regulation. He served as a member of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Working Group on Computerized Loan Origination (CLO) systems, and is a member of the Editorial Board of the Fannie Mae Foundation's journal, Housing Policy Debate. He is the author of two books on mortgage finance and real estate.